¿Por qué vale la pena hacer propósitos de Año Nuevo, a pesar de que muchos no se cumplan? | Estilo de Vida | EL PAÍS English

Cuando decides embarcarte en un proyecto complicado, como dejar de fumar o comenzar a correr tres veces por semana, es natural cuestionarse si realmente vale la pena. Para encontrar excusas o motivación, algunos recurren a la ciencia como fuente de certeza, y pueden hallar respaldo para prácticamente cualquier decisión. Los estudios sobre el cumplimiento de las resoluciones de Año Nuevo sugieren que, a largo plazo, la mayoría no lo logra. Un artículo clásico sobre el tema de 1989 estimó que el 77% de las personas mantuvo sus resoluciones durante una semana, el 55% durante un mes y el 40% alcanzó el medio año. Después de dos años de seguimiento, solo el 19% había persistido en su intento. Datos más recientes sobre intentos de pérdida de peso pueden parecer aún más desalentadores. A largo plazo, solo entre el 5 y el 10% logra conservar su reducción inicial, una tasa de éxito similar a la de los fumadores que intentan dejar el hábito.

Despite these data, there are strategies that improve the chances of success (some of which will be explained below) and science has also studied other facets of good intentions that highlight their value, even if they do not produce tangible results, and which partly explain the success of Christmas. At this time, Christians celebrate that God sent his son to the world to redeem humans and offer the hope of an eternal kingdom of justice and peace. In Spain, on December 22, millions of people play the lottery with the more humble hope of escaping poverty. For non-believers or those who know mathematics, these beliefs may seem absurd, but those who bet on the illusion will also find support in science.

Although an accurate perception of reality was considered for years to be a basis for mental health, studies in the 1980s began to question this idea. When people’s beliefs are analyzed, almost all of us think that our future will be better than average and that bad things are less likely to happen to us. Time and again, surveys show how people consider that the economic situation of the country is bad, yet their own situation is good, or that sexism in society is rampant, but their own partner is not sexist. This has led to the belief that positive illusions are a trait encouraged by evolution, because of their protective effect on mental health. In fact, people who assessed the future most accurately were those who suffered from mild depression or low self-esteem. That is why adopting New Year’s resolutions, although they are not entirely realistic and nearly always end in failure, has a positive value, and it is not a good idea to try too hard to repress the optimism that drives them.